A second Trump administration has raised questions about the future of U.S.-Africa relations, particularly for Africa’s youth, who represent over 60% of the continent’s population. With policies emphasizing U.S. strategic interests, a focus on counterterrorism, trade, and stricter immigration, the implications for Africa are significant. While challenges are evident—such as reduced aid and potential disruptions to migration—there are opportunities for Africa’s young population to redefine its role in a shifting global order.
Africa’s Youth: Caught Between Policy and Opportunity
Africa is home to the youngest population globally, with a median age of just 19.8 years. As the U.S. recalibrates its foreign policy under Trump’s “America First” doctrine, the continent’s youth stand at a crossroads. On one hand, they could be the drivers of innovation and growth in a more self-reliant Africa. On the other, they may face harsher immigration barriers and reduced developmental aid that could stymie opportunities.
Trade and Investment: A Double-Edged Sword
Trump’s focus on bilateral trade agreements over multilateral frameworks like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) signals a shift towards transactional relationships. While this could spur targeted investments, especially in critical sectors like minerals and energy, it risks sidelining broader development objectives.
For Africa’s youth, this means both opportunities and challenges. The energy transition offers immense potential, as the Democratic Republic of Congo produces 75% of the world’s cobalt, vital for batteries in electric vehicles. Integrated projects like the Lobito Corridor—linking Angola, the DRC, and Zambia—could create jobs and develop local industries. Yet, without equitable trade policies, Africa risks remaining a raw material supplier, limiting value-added opportunities for young entrepreneurs.
The Numbers Tell a Story
- U.S.-Africa trade declined from $104.7 billion in 2008 to $33.7 billion in 2016.
- Under Trump, trade briefly rose to $40.9 billion in 2018 before falling during the pandemic.
- U.S. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Africa hit $40.9 billion in 2018 but dropped to $30 billion by 2020.
These fluctuations highlight the precarious nature of U.S.-Africa economic ties and the need for sustainable frameworks that empower Africa’s burgeoning workforce.
Immigration: Shutting Doors or Building Walls?
For many young Africans, migration is a path to better opportunities. Between 1990 and 2020, approximately three million African migrants settled in the U.S. and Canada, contributing significantly to remittances—$13 billion in 2023 alone. However, Trump’s immigration policies, which prioritize border security and deportation, could complicate this movement.
The rise in undocumented African migrants from 275,000 in 2019 to 375,000 in 2022 illustrates a growing reliance on migration. Strict immigration measures risk disrupting the African diaspora’s critical financial and cultural contributions.
Counterterrorism: Youth and Security
Africa’s Sahel region has become a global terrorism hotspot, accounting for nearly half of all terrorism-related deaths worldwide in 2023. Trump’s first term saw increased counterterrorism efforts, often partnering with nations like Kenya and Nigeria. For Africa’s youth, especially those in conflict-prone areas, this raises the stakes.
While the U.S. may offer military support, Trump’s aversion to prolonged interventions suggests a focus on strategic, offshore operations. This approach could leave young Africans in unstable regions more vulnerable to extremist recruitment, underscoring the need for localized solutions.
Aid and Self-Reliance: A Catalyst for Change?
One of the more contentious aspects of Trump’s policies is the likely reduction in humanitarian aid. The $7 billion allocated to sub-Saharan Africa in 2024 may dwindle under a second Trump administration, emphasizing private-sector-driven development instead.
For African youth, this shift could be both a challenge and an opportunity. Reduced aid might strain health and education systems, but it could also encourage self-reliance and innovation. Programs like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), if fully realized, could unlock a $3.4 trillion market, creating unprecedented opportunities for young entrepreneurs.
What’s Next for Africa’s Youth?
The intersection of U.S. policy and Africa’s youthful demographic offers both risks and rewards. To maximize benefits:
- Leverage Natural Resources: Africa must negotiate for investments in value addition rather than raw exports.
- Embrace Regional Integration: The AfCFTA is a powerful tool to boost intra-African trade and reduce dependency on external powers.
- Enhance Skills Development: Investment in STEM and vocational training will prepare young Africans for a competitive global economy.
